Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: This paper presents the modeling of mortality risk from exposure to a potential future extreme event such as a natural disaster and a terrorist attack, and its impact on life insurance. With this new model, quantities associated with the total force of mortality such as survival function are derived and the impact of mortality risk on life insurance is examined.

Description: It is obvious that the introduction of a deductible has two major effects. The amount paid for every claim will drop, resulting in a lower claim burden for the insurance company. There will also be a drop in claim frequency, leading to a decrease in claim handling expenses. However, it is by no means obvious how the average claim size changes with the introduction of a deductible. In this paper, we will study this question. First, we derive some theoretical results then apply them to concrete distributions.

Description: The disastrous events of September 11, 2001 have focused the reinsurance community’s attention on the subject of managing concentration of risk. A panel of experts discusses: Techniques for limiting exposure, Impact on group and COLI/BOLI insurance and Changes in the catastrophe reinsurance market. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 29, No. 1, Washington D.C. Spring Meeting, May 29–30, 2003Session 65PD.

Description: E-book contains 16 topical essays that express the opinions and thoughts of a number of authors on the subject of Investment Fallacies.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Misconceptions of Retirement Risks

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Panel discussion overview of current risk-based capital RBC requirements of life insurers, as well as insight into topical issues and potential changes to RBC. Items covered include: • Recap of RBC law and RBC calculation rules • Tax impact on the factors • Common stock issue • C-3 testing • Proposed C-3 testing for Variable Annuity Guaranteed Living Benefits VAGLB • Liquidity risk issue

Description: This paper demonstrates that using a conditional probability approach to analyzing investment data yields investment forecast and stock option pricing models which more closely match actual market data, and it demonstrates the impact that conditional probabilities could have on CAPM beta and risk premia calculations. Reprinted from: Journal of Financial and Economic Practice, Vol. 6 No. 2 Spring 2006.

Description: Investment Fallacies: On the Validity of Common Portfolio Return Assumptions

Description: This is the abstract of the paper Risk Classification by Fuzzy Cluster. In this paper an algorithm for risk classification is proposed. This algorithm is based on the concepts of fuzzy cluster. We test our algorithm with two examples, the results are very promising.